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Home 20th Century Fox TV

Germany’s economy shrinks, fuelling fears of a recession – business live | Business

newsfashion by newsfashion
August 14, 2019
in 20th Century Fox TV
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Germany’s economy shrinks, fuelling fears of a recession – business live | Business
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3.00am EDT
03:00

Unicredit analyst Andreas Rees reckons Germany’s economy has been hurt by the uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Rees says:


For a year now, the German economy has been only crawling forward.

Besides Brexit, this is above all the U.S.-Sino trade dispute and possible U.S. tariffs on European cars.













2.53am EDT
02:53

ING: End of a golden decade for Germany

Today’s GDP report marks “the end of a golden decade for the German economy”, says Carsten Brzeski, chief economist for Germany at Dutch bank ING.

Brzeski sounds deeply disappointed to learn that the German economy contracted by 0.1% in the last quarter.

He blames the damaging uncertainty caused by Donald Trump’s trade war with China, along with problems at Germany’s carmakers, writing:


Trade conflicts, global uncertainty and the struggling automotive sector have finally brought the German economy down on its knee.

In particular, increased uncertainty, rather than direct effects from the trade conflicts, have dented sentiment and hence economic activity.

Brzeski points out that Germany had been on a decent run since the financial crisis, growing at around 0.5% per quarter. Not any more….


It was a decade of strong growth on the back of earlier structural reforms, fiscal stimulus, globalisation at its peak and steroids provided by the ECB in the form of low-interest rates and a relatively weak euro.

This decade, in which strong German growth looked so effortless, is coming to an end.

The full note is online here.













2.47am EDT
02:47

Here’s Nadia Gharbi of Pictet Asset Management:

Nadia Gharbi
(@nghrbi)

🇩🇪 No upside surprise in Germany. Real GDP fell by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2, decelerating from a 0.4% rise in Q1. We don’t have numerical details but destatis mentioned that domestic demand contributed positively to growth, while foreign trade was a drag (1/n) pic.twitter.com/sZoh7KKUyM


August 14, 2019













2.46am EDT
02:46

Germany is clearly struggling, but it’s not alone.

Last week, we learned that Britain’s economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of this year, as the boost from Brexit stockpiling earlier in the year faded.

But the UK is still doing better on a longer-term basis — UK GDP grew by 1.2% over the last year, compared to just 0.4% annual growth for Germany.

Growth across the eurozone halved last quarter, from 0.4% to 0.2%, with France growing by 0.2% and Italy stagnating (again). That data will be updated at 10am UK time….

Christophe Barraud🛢
(@C_Barraud)

🇩🇪 German Economy Contracts as #Trade Tensions Take Their Toll – Bloomberg#GERMANY Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.1% V -0.1%E
*Link: https://t.co/ADOz5hVN89 pic.twitter.com/9rqQR4I8cE


August 14, 2019













2.36am EDT
02:36

Several economists are warning that Germany’s economy could still be shrinking – plunging it into a full-blown recession.

Katharina Utermöhl, senior economist for Europe at insurance giant Allianz SE, points out that Germany has looked very weak this summer:

Katharina Utermöhl
(@Economist_Kat)

#Germany: Q2 GDP declined by 0.1% q/q. Private & public consumption as well as business investment continued to support growth, but construction investment and net exports proved to be a drag. Given the very weak stark to Q3, the risk of a recession is high. https://t.co/uYWtGDL4mx


August 14, 2019

Economics professor Sebastian Dullien agrees that recession risks are rising:

Sebastian Dullien
(@SDullien)

German GDP fell by 0.1 percent in Q2. This increases the risk of Germany going into recession. Our @imkflash business cycle indicator now shows a probability of 43 percent for an imminent recession in Germany, up 6 points against July. 2/


August 14, 2019

Martin Grieve of German newspaper Handelsblatt points out that recent German manufacturing data has been very weak (industrial production slumped in June).

Martin Greive
(@MartinGreive)

Just in: German economy shrinkes 0,1 pp in Q2. Not as bad as some expected. But last industry orders und production signal a stronger slump for Q3. So, Germany is very likely in a technical recession right now.


August 14, 2019













2.27am EDT
02:27

Germany isn’t technically in recession yet — that would mean two successive quarters of negative growth.

But still…. its economy has really struggled over the last year, and has contracted in two of the last four quarters.

Today’s growth reports shows that:

  • Q3 2018: German GDP contracted by 0.1%
  • Q4 2018: German GDP grew by 0.2% (revised higher this morning)
  • Q1 2019: German GDP grew by 0.4%
  • Q2 2019: German GDP shrank by 0.1%

That adds up to annual growth of just 0.4% – well below the 2.2% recorded in 2017, or the 1.5% in 2018.

Updated
at 2.30am EDT













2.20am EDT
02:20

Germany economy hit by trade wars

Germany’s exporting powerhouse stumbled in the April-June quarter.

German exports fell during Q2, Destatis says, which is why the economy shrank by 0.1%.

However, consumer and government spending helped to prop the economy up.

Destatis says:


Household final consumption expenditure increased, together with government final consumption expenditure.

In addition, more was invested than in the first quarter, however, gross fixed capital formation in construction declined. The development of foreign trade slowed down economic growth because exports recorded a stronger quarter-on-quarter decrease than imports.













2.10am EDT
02:10

Introduction: Germany’s economy shrinks





The German flag

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Newsflash: Germany’s economy has shrunk, fuelling worries that the eurozone could be teetering close to recession.

Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2019, new data shows, following 0.4% growth in the first three months of the year.

Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office, reports that Germany experienced “a slight decline in economic performance” in the last quarter, as it was dragged down by a fall in exports.

Destatis also reports that Germany’s economy only grew by 0.4% over the last 12 months, which looks to be the weakest performance in several years.

This data confirms that Germany has suffered a blow from the slowdown in the global economy, and the US-China trade war which hurt demand for German-made goods.


Destatis news
(@destatis_news)

Gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter of 2019 down 0.1% on the previous quarter. https://t.co/fsQPJMuMGi #GDP pic.twitter.com/H1RSx7EDYf


August 14, 2019

More to follow…..

Also coming up today

New UK inflation data is expected to show a slight slowdown last month, with prices rising less sharply than earnings in July. That would be a relief for households, although the recent slump in sterling could push inflation higher this summer.

Global investors are feeling slightly more optimistic, after Donald Trump delayed planned tariffs on Chinese-made goods such as cell phones, laptops and video game consoles. That will avoid pre-Christmas price hikes – and could also soften tensions with Beijing.

The agenda

  • 9.30am BST: UK inflation data (CPI expected to drop to 1.9%, from 2%)
  • 10am BST: Eurozone Q2 GDP (expected to confirm that growth slowed to 0.2%, from 0.4%).

Updated
at 2.20am EDT




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