Race to succeed May hots up as Tory leadership hopefuls urge party to win over young voters
Conservative ministers vying to succeed Theresa May have sought to boost their credentials by urging the party to do more to appeal to young people.
Seven cabinet ministers widely believed to be planning leadership bids are among more than 40 MPs who have endorsed a new report calling for the Conservatives to move to the centre ground to win over younger voters.
The report, by think-tank Onward, says there are 3 million voters under the age of 35 who would consider voting Conservative if the party adopted a more moderate agenda.
It was backed by 42 Conservative MPs from the 2015 and 2017 parliamentary intakes, plus potential leadership candidates Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt and Dominic Raab.
The report, titled Generation Why?, found that just 16 per cent of under-35s said they would vote Conservative, although 28 per cent – around 3 million voters – said they would consider doing so if the party changed.
The study found that the Tories’ support was “dangerously” skewed towards older voters, with the age at which a voter was more likely to vote Conservative than Labour having soared from 34 before the 2017 general election to 51 today.
Onward director Will Tanner, a former aide to Mrs May, said: “Everyone is focusing on Brexit, but the growing age gap in vote intention is a bigger threat to the Conservative Party’s future.
“The only way to regain a majority is to focus on winning over a younger generation of voters – if the Conservatives do not, they risk being pushed to the sidelines, unable to govern. But there is hope, with our report showing that there are 3 million young undecided voters who would consider voting for the party.”
The study found that 83 per cent of Conservative voters were over the age of 45, with almost half (48 per cent) being older than 65.
It also found that Labour had a significant poll lead among younger voters on every policy issue. Among all voters, the Conservatives had a clear lead only on matters of defence and security, while Labour was more popular even on traditionally Tory issues such as crime, immigration and taxation.
Onward proposed a 10-point plan to win over those votes, including pledges to lower taxes, reduce the deficit, tackle inequality and control immigration. This should go hand-in-hand with a renewed focus on winning the support of female and ethnic minority voters, it said.
The proposals were endorsed by almost all of the main Conservative leadership candidates.
1/10 Boris Johnson
Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson has long been hopeful, he previously ran in the leadership contest that followed the Brexit vote and has at many times since been thought to be maneuvering himself towards the goal. He remains a darling of the party’s right wing, particularly those in the ERG, and is the most popular choice among Tory voters but his leadership bid would be fiercely opposed by many MPs
PA
2/10 Dominic Raab
Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has emerged as a favourite to be the Brexiteer candidate in a contest to succeed to Ms May. He displayed a grip on detail in his role as Brexit secretary. When asked recently if he would like to become prime minister he replied “never say never”
Getty
3/10 Sajid Javid
Home secretary Sajid Javid is said to have a plan in place for a leadership race. He made headlines over Christmas when he declared that people smuggling over the English channel was a “major incident” and more recently when he revoked the citizenship of ISIS bride Shamima Begum. Son of a bus driver, he wants the Conservatives to be seen as the party of social mobility
PA
4/10 Amber Rudd
Work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd is a leading contender from the moderate wing of the party. She returned to the cabinet in November 2018 after resigning as Home Secretary over the handling of the Windrush scandal. Rudd showed off her leadership credentials in the 2017 election campaign, appearing in the televised debate in place of the Prime Minister, who had refused. Her pro-EU leanings, and her tiny 346 majority in Hastings and Rye might count against her among Tory members
AFP/Getty
5/10 Jeremy Hunt
Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt was recently thought to be the favourite in the event of a leadership race as he could sell himself as the man to unite the party. Critics worry that his long stint as health secretary could return to haunt him at a general election. He has reportedly been holding meetings with Tory MPs over breakfast to promote his leadership.
PA
6/10 Michael Gove
Environment secretary Michael Gove is another member who has long wanted to be leader. He has lately been known for rousing his party in the commons, his recent speeches on the Brexit deal and Labour’s no confidence motion have overshadowed the Prime Minister’s. He has been loyal to the Prime Minister, partly to shed his reputation as a backstabber who abandoned Boris Johnson to stand against him in the 2016 leadership election
Getty
7/10 David Davis
Often seen as a possible caretaker prime minister if Ms May departed, but would want the job on a permanent basis. Has twice run for the Tory leadership. Enjoyed an Indian summer with a surprise return to the cabinet after the 2016 referendum. Eclipsed Mr Johnson by resigning first over the Chequers deal.
Would play hardball with Brussels. Now in a battle with Mr Johnson and Mr Raab to be the Eurosceptics’ standard-bearer. Aged 70, so his party may opt for someone younger
AFP/Getty
8/10 Andrea Leadsom
Following the Prime Minister’s second defeat over her Brexit deal, Leader of the house Andrea Leadsom hosted a dinner party at which “leadership was the only topic of conversation”, The Times heard. Leadsom ran against Theresa May in the 2016 leadership election before dropping out, allowing May to become Prime Minister
AFP/Getty
9/10 Priti Patel
Former international development secretary Priti Patel is thought to be positioning herself as a contender. One MP told The Independent “she knows she’s from the right of the party, the part which is going to choose the next leader, so she’s reminding everyone she’s there.” Patel left the government late in 2017 after it emerged that she had held undisclosed meetings with Israeli officials
PA
10/10 Liz Truss
Chief secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss has been rumoured to be a contender after a recent interview in The Times in which she proposed a number of policies. When asked about her desire to be leader, she replied “it’s never wise to rule anything out in politics but I’m absolutely not thinking about it”
PA
1/10 Boris Johnson
Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson has long been hopeful, he previously ran in the leadership contest that followed the Brexit vote and has at many times since been thought to be maneuvering himself towards the goal. He remains a darling of the party’s right wing, particularly those in the ERG, and is the most popular choice among Tory voters but his leadership bid would be fiercely opposed by many MPs
PA
2/10 Dominic Raab
Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has emerged as a favourite to be the Brexiteer candidate in a contest to succeed to Ms May. He displayed a grip on detail in his role as Brexit secretary. When asked recently if he would like to become prime minister he replied “never say never”
Getty
3/10 Sajid Javid
Home secretary Sajid Javid is said to have a plan in place for a leadership race. He made headlines over Christmas when he declared that people smuggling over the English channel was a “major incident” and more recently when he revoked the citizenship of ISIS bride Shamima Begum. Son of a bus driver, he wants the Conservatives to be seen as the party of social mobility
PA
4/10 Amber Rudd
Work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd is a leading contender from the moderate wing of the party. She returned to the cabinet in November 2018 after resigning as Home Secretary over the handling of the Windrush scandal. Rudd showed off her leadership credentials in the 2017 election campaign, appearing in the televised debate in place of the Prime Minister, who had refused. Her pro-EU leanings, and her tiny 346 majority in Hastings and Rye might count against her among Tory members
AFP/Getty
5/10 Jeremy Hunt
Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt was recently thought to be the favourite in the event of a leadership race as he could sell himself as the man to unite the party. Critics worry that his long stint as health secretary could return to haunt him at a general election. He has reportedly been holding meetings with Tory MPs over breakfast to promote his leadership.
PA
6/10 Michael Gove
Environment secretary Michael Gove is another member who has long wanted to be leader. He has lately been known for rousing his party in the commons, his recent speeches on the Brexit deal and Labour’s no confidence motion have overshadowed the Prime Minister’s. He has been loyal to the Prime Minister, partly to shed his reputation as a backstabber who abandoned Boris Johnson to stand against him in the 2016 leadership election
Getty
7/10 David Davis
Often seen as a possible caretaker prime minister if Ms May departed, but would want the job on a permanent basis. Has twice run for the Tory leadership. Enjoyed an Indian summer with a surprise return to the cabinet after the 2016 referendum. Eclipsed Mr Johnson by resigning first over the Chequers deal.
Would play hardball with Brussels. Now in a battle with Mr Johnson and Mr Raab to be the Eurosceptics’ standard-bearer. Aged 70, so his party may opt for someone younger
AFP/Getty
8/10 Andrea Leadsom
Following the Prime Minister’s second defeat over her Brexit deal, Leader of the house Andrea Leadsom hosted a dinner party at which “leadership was the only topic of conversation”, The Times heard. Leadsom ran against Theresa May in the 2016 leadership election before dropping out, allowing May to become Prime Minister
AFP/Getty
9/10 Priti Patel
Former international development secretary Priti Patel is thought to be positioning herself as a contender. One MP told The Independent “she knows she’s from the right of the party, the part which is going to choose the next leader, so she’s reminding everyone she’s there.” Patel left the government late in 2017 after it emerged that she had held undisclosed meetings with Israeli officials
PA
10/10 Liz Truss
Chief secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss has been rumoured to be a contender after a recent interview in The Times in which she proposed a number of policies. When asked about her desire to be leader, she replied “it’s never wise to rule anything out in politics but I’m absolutely not thinking about it”
PA
Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said: “Our record in office – turning round the economy, creating 1,000 jobs a day – mean we should be the natural political home for the next generation.
“Our focus on enterprise, public services, family and home ownership are values we hold in common with younger people. It’s up to us to demonstrate our priorities are connected with the lives of young people today.”
One of his main rivals in the race to succeed Theresa May, home secretary Sajid Javid, said: “Unless we can win over younger and ethnic minority voters we cannot achieve a majority at the next election. It’s as simple as that.”
Health secretary Matt Hancock said the Tories had to work harder “to bring people with us as we work towards a positive, optimistic and outward-looking future for the UK”, while Michael Gove, the environment secretary, said: “It’s clear that young people want to see government taking action on the environment.”
Penny Morduant, the international development secretary, suggested the Onward study showed the Tories must refocus on winning over younger generations who were turning away from the centre right in unprecedented numbers – ”especially the many young women who will now not even consider voting Conservative” – while chief secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss said it showed young had a powerful sense of fairness and wanted to see barriers broken down [to give] everyone a fair shot in life.
Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, said it was absolutely crucial that Conservatives broadened the party’s appeal among young aspirational voters.
The report was published as several leadership hopefuls made fresh pitches for support.
Writing in the Sunday Times, Mr Hancock said the Conservatives needed to show the compassion and human connection that drove so many younger people. “Nobody wants to hang out with the person always pointing out the problems, rather than the one hopeful about the solutions,” he said.
Ms Truss, meanwhile, told BBC Radio 5Live she was not thinking about the leadership but was instead talking about ideas and concentrating on how the Conservative Party could reinvent itself.
Speculation about a potential pact between Amber Rudd and Boris Johnson grew when senior Brexiteer Jacob-Rees Mogg, who is reported to be backing Mr Johnson’s bid to be party leader, poured praise on the pro-EU work and pensions secretary’s “first-class capabilities” and said there would soon be a time when “we will need all the talents that are arrayed within the Tory party, not just those of Brexiteers”.
Asked about a possible leadership bid, House of Commons leader Andrea Leadsom told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show she would be thinking about that when the time came.
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